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Thursday, January 9, 2025

 MIDLE EAST IN FLAMES AGAIN?

TURKEY - ISRAEL  - USA

Netanyahu addressed the report, stating, “We are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new forces( Turkey ) are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected. This report provides us with a roadmap to secure Israel’s future.”…

A NEW GREAT WAR ON THE HORIZON?

" When chaos prevails, the next phase is war.Mastering chaos is possible! Mastering war is impossible!!! ".

SYRIA : ASSAD LEFT - CHAOS IS UNFOLDING. 

ISRAEL : TURKEY IS A BIGGER THREAT TO ISRAEL SECURITY,THAN IRAN!!!

TURKEY: NO KURTISH STATE ACCEPTABLE. 


Post:

The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” the report states, warning that Turkish-backed forces might act as proxies, fueling regional instability. The committee’s assessment comes amid Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly assertive policies in the region, which some analysts view as antagonistic to Israel’s interests….

Netanyahu addressed the report, stating, “We are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new forces are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected. This report provides us with a roadmap to secure Israel’s future.”…

Bolstering military capabilities

To prepare for a potential confrontation with Turkey, the committee recommended the following measures:

Advanced weaponry: Acquiring additional F-15 fighter jets, refueling aircraft, drones, and satellites to strengthen Israel’s long-range strike capabilities.

Air defense systems: Enhancing multi-layered air defense capabilities, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow systems, and the newly operational Iron Beam laser-based defense system.

Border security: Constructing a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley, which would mark a significant shift in Israel’s defensive strategy despite potential diplomatic ramifications with Jordan. Israel must prepare for potential war with Turkey, Nagel Committee warns,Jerusalem Post

War?? The Jerusalem Post thinks there could be a war between Israel and Turkey?

How is it that the editors of the Post are only figuring this out now, when Muammar Gaddafi figured it out more than a decade ago. Take a look:

Let me get this straight: Gaddafi grasped that Israel’s plan to splinter Syria would create a hard border in the north with Turkey, but no one at the CIA, Mossad or Turkey’s MIT could draw that same obvious conclusion?
WTF?!?

Keep in mind, these are the same “experts” that were back-slapping and high-fiving just last week when Assad was ousted . Now these same spooks and pundits have gone into full-panic-mode demanding that Israel “bolster their military capabilities” to confront an enemy more formidable than Iran.

And, in the north, the situation is even more ominous due in large part to Washington’s continued support for Kurdish separatists (SDF) who have carved out their own state in the heart of the Arab world. Try to image Biden’s response if Putin decided to send troops and weaponry to a group of separatists in Texas who declared themselves independent of the US and seized all the oil wells across the state. What do you think Biden’s reaction would be?

Turkey’s President Erdogan is doing nothing that Biden wouldn’t do under the same circumstances. He’s building up his forces and threatening to attack Washington’s allies in northeastern Syria which dramatically increases the probability of war breaking out between two members of NATO. This is from an article at The Cradle:

Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on 6 January that Kurdish militias in Syria will soon be driven out of the country and that Ankara will not agree to any policy allowing them to maintain a presence there. Fidan said it was a “matter of time” before the Peoples Protection Unit (YPG) gets “eliminated,” stressing that it must lay down its weapons “as soon as possible.”

The YPG is the Syrian branch of Ankara’s sworn foe, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The YPG is considered the backbone of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Washington’s Kurdish proxy in Syria.

“Conditions in Syria have changed,” Fidan stated. “PKK’s empire of violence built over Kurdish people is on the verge of collapsing.”

Under the pretext of securing its borders and pushing away Kurdish militants, t he Turkish military has been illegally occupying northern Syria since 2017 and supporting a coalition of armed factions called the Syrian National Army (SNA) – made up of several extremist groups such as Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham.

The SNA has incorporated scores of ISIS fighters and commanders into its ranks over the years. It played a significant role in the 11-day shock offensive, which ended with the collapse of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government on 8 December.

Since the fall of Damascus, the SNA and SDF have been engaged in fierce clashes with one another. The clashes have escalated in recent days, as a US-brokered truce has failed.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on 5 January that over 100 fighters from both sides have been killed in the last few days. The clashes are focused in the northern city of Manbij in the Aleppo countryside….

SDF forces remain in control of large chunks of northeastern Syria and part of Deir Ezzor governorate, in particular, the eastern bank of the Euphrates River. The Kurdish militia, created with the support of the US in 2015, has helped Washington retain control of Syria’s oil and wheat-rich regions since 2017. Turkiye vows ‘imminent eradication’ of Kurdish militias as death toll skyrockets in north Syria, The Cradle

So, while developments in the south are increasingly ominous, in the north, the fighting has already begun. Erdogan is going to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish state whatever the cost and even if his actions put him in direct conflict with US forces. From a national security point of view, Turkey cannot allow a hostile separatist entity to occupy strategic outposts along its southern border. This is not a negotiable issue. The Kurds must settle for partial autonomy under the auspices of the new Syrian state. That is the only mutually palatable remedy.

What do these three articles tell us?

They tell us that the situation on the ground in Syria is deteriorating fast and that all the main players are being dragged inexorably towards war. They tell us that Turkey and Israel are likely to clash over undetermined borders in the south and over Israel’s absurd claim that it can conduct airstrikes in Syria whenever it wants.

They tell us that no one was prepared for the fall of the Assad and that –as a result– no one developed a coherent plan for establishing security, preserving a contiguous state, or ending the hostilities. In short, there is no plan, no strategy, nothing. Our foreign policy mandarins are simply improvising, making it up as they go along, and reacting to events as they unfold.

And that is precisely how nations sleepwalk into world wars.

Thank to Mike Whitney, The Unz Review

In a possible clash between Israel and the US against Turkey (which has its own reasons to  pursue the occupation of part of Syria as an anti-Kurdish function) Turkey could seek alliance with other Sunni Arab Powers and even with Russia.

This possibility could link this broadening conflict in the Middle East with that in Ukraine in a very dangerous and escalating way in a sort of  new wave WWI mode.